‘Trap door under the market’ could slash S&P by two-thirds, warns fund manager

Critical information for the U.S. trading day

John Hussman is at it again.

Of course, the fund manager’s detractors would be quick to tell you, he’s been at it again, wrongly, since the Dutch East India Company went public.

OK, it hasn’t been that long. And Hussman has earned some street cred along the way with some strong calls, including nailing the market collapses in 2000 and 2008. In fact, his fund surged to $6.7 billion in assets under management in 2010, before the weight of his misfires brought that figure down to $360.5 million over the ensuing seven years, according to the Wall Street Journal.

So, why do we care about his latest end-of-times outlook?

Maybe we don’t. But after an ugly October, doomsayers like Hussman might resonate a bit more with skittish investors looking for their fears to be validated.

Monday’s early action is only raising more questions.

In our call of the day, the president of Hussman Investment Trust reiterated his longtime stance that there is a menacing “trap door under the market,” which could lead to the S&P 500 SPX, -0.83%  losing two-thirds of its value.

“I have little question that Fed policy has again produced a bubble that will have extraordinarily disruptive consequences,” he wrote. “The advance of recent years has produced a toxic combination of extreme valuations in every conventional asset class, coupled with a breathtaking mountain of low-grade debt issued by Wall Street to satisfy the yield-seeking speculative demand of investors.”

Hussman, a former professor at the University of Michigan with a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University, says there could still be some wild moves to the upside before the crash he’s been predicting finally comes through.

So get ready for more bouts of volatility VIX, +7.95%

“In the context of obscene valuations and unfavorable market internals… the only time we’ve seen anywhere near the number of classic top features as Sep 20, 2018 was the week of March 24, 2000,” he wrote. “We should periodically expect scorching advances from short-term oversold conditions.”

No “scorching advance” this morning.

The market

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.87%  , S&P 500  SPX, -0.83%  and Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.61%  all opened lower on Monday. GoldGCZ8, -0.35%  also came under pressure, as did crude CLZ8, +1.46% which has suffered a string of losses of late. In Asia ADOW, +0.04% major benchmarks closed in the red, while European indexes SXXP, -0.80%  were moving lower early.

The buzz

Some Merger Monday action with SAP SE SAP, -6.08% agreeing to purchase Qualtrics International for $8 billion in cash, Qualtrics, a Utah-based software company, had filed for an initial public offering in October hoping to raise about $200 million. SAP shares were off early.

A big week for the marijuana sector is upon us. Four major Canada-based weed producers are set to report earnings in the coming days, just about a month after Canada legalized adult recreational use of cannabis. While legalization occurred after the quarter ended, there is still plenty to learn from reports by Aurora Cannabis ACB, -3.16% Canopy Growth WEED, -1.81% Cronos GroupCRON, -2.79% and Tilray TLRY, -0.16%

Alibaba BABA, -1.97%  said early Sunday local time it logged 10 billion yuan, or $1.44 billion, of sales volume in the opening minutes of its annual Singles Day shopping extravaganza, a start that outpaces last year’s record kickoff.

The stories out of California are beyond disturbing. At least 31 lives have been lost with more than 200 people missing as of Sunday night. The Camp Fire in Butte County, about 100 miles north of Sacramento, has destroyed an estimated 6,500 homes and 260 businesses, Already ranked as the most destructive wildfire in state history, the Camp Fire has equaled the deadliest on record.

The chart

John Hussman isn’t the only one ringing the alarm bells on the stock market. Chris Kimble of the Kimble Charting Solutions blog connected recent pricing action to the Florida recount with this illustration, saying “history doesn’t repeat,

“If any good came of this maybe it was that for one day the left and the right finally came together to agree on something: That I’m a dick”— SNL’s Pete Davidson, in part of his apology on Saturday to Dan Crenshaw, a Representative-elect in Texas who was injured in Afghanistan during his third tour as a Navy SEAL.

The stat

81%—that is the percentage of homes in San Francisco worth more than $1 million, according to a recent report from Trulia. A year ago, only 67% of homes reached this once lofty level.

The economy

The market may be open but most banks will be closed and there are no economic releases on the docket for Monday. Later this week, we’ll get October CPI and retail sales results, to go along with a smattering of updates on the manufacturing front. Read:Investors are back on inflation watch and feeling spooked

Random reads

Nearly everyone—that would include POTUS—needs at least seven hours of sleep a night to be “mentally limber,” according to sweeping study.

Kellyanne Conway offers up a fresh set of alternative facts.

Serena Williams’s husband warns on “hustle porn.”

The Atlantic tackles one of the most pressing issues facing us today: Who is the most underrated superhero of all time?

Colleges make a ton of money off rejected applications.

Remember that viral chart about media bias? The woman who created it has raised $30,000 to help take it to the next level.

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but sometimes it rhymes.”

“Will history repeat exactly this year? I doubt it,” Kimble wrote in his blog post. “But, if multiyear rising support does happen to give way, selling pressure could increase similar to 2000.”

Salta: Prorrogaron la emergencia por violencia de género

El gobernador Juan Manuel Urtubey promulgó la ley que prorroga dos años más la emergencia pública en materia social por violencia de género en todo el territorio provincial. A través del decreto  1.299/18 publicado en el Boletín Oficial.

Salta es una de las provincias con más casos de femicidios del país, según estadísticas de los últimos años. En el 2017 obtuvo el triste record de ser la provincia con más femicidios registrados. 2.74 mujeres por cada 100.000 habitantes y aún la provincia no tiene un registro oficial de datos.

La ley faculta al Ejecutivo a disponer y reasignar partidas presupuestarias necesarias para implementar medidas y hacer frente a la emergencia declarada.

Determinan método de aprendizaje de segundas lenguas entre siglos XVII y XIX

lavanguardia.com

Una investigación internacional, coordinada por profesores de las universidades de Córdoba y Bolonia, que ha analizado textos inéditos y desconocidos, ha determinado el método de aprendizaje de segundas lenguas que se llevaron a cabo entre los siglos XVII y XIX.

La Universidad de Córdoba ha explicado en una nota que la internacionalización de la economía en la modernidad, especialmente a partir del siglo XVII, institucionalizó la enseñanza de idiomas y, aunque no existían cursos de inmersión como los que ahora, sí existían métodos más exitosos que otros.

Al estudio de esas maneras de enseñar idiomas entre los siglos XVII y XIX han dedicado su último trabajo de investigación los profesores Alfonso Zamorano, titular de Lingüística General de la Universidad de Córdoba, y Félix San Vicente, catedrático de Lingüística Española en la Universidad de Bolonia.

El libro, publicado en la prestigiosa editorial alemana Peter Lang, ofrece un análisis exhaustivo en diferentes contextos culturales y lingüísticos, y realiza un estudio pormenorizado del español desde diferentes perspectivas, utilizando para ello numerosos textos, algunos de ellos inéditos y desconocidos hasta el momento.

Algunos de estos textos inéditos se destinaban a la enseñanza del inglés y, en el caso de los desconocidos, al aprendizaje del catalán y del inglés para países de habla italiana.

Trece investigadores de España, Italia, Francia y Alemania, bajo la coordinación de los profesores San Vicente y Zamorano, realizan un trabajo de comparación entre lenguas y tradiciones gramaticales diferentes, observando los aspectos tanto homogéneos como dispares entre sí.

Este trabajo explica cómo los métodos o sistemas de aprendizaje de la lengua cambiaban en función de las personas destinatarias, es decir, si se trataba de estudiantes jóvenes, profesionales o emigrantes, por ejemplo, o del contexto social en el que se impartían las enseñanzas o si se destinaban al aprendizaje en grupo o autoaprendizaje, o incluso la propia idiosincrasia de la institución donde se impartían.

En este sentido, en el conjunto de materiales didácticos analizados para la difusión de las lenguas europeas se observa el gran peso que tienen los aspectos ideológicos, culturales y sociales con la incorporación en muchos casos de anexos con lecturas e ilustraciones.

Se explica también cómo los cambios en la enseñanza de cuestiones como la pronunciación, morfosintaxis, nomenclaturas o glosarios son más significativos a lo largo de los años que la propia gramática que, según esta nueva publicación, sigue siendo en la actualidad un soporte fundamental para el aprendizaje de una segunda lengua en todos los niveles educativos, incluyendo, la Universidad.

Las investigaciones de los autores de esta publicación han detectado también cómo al final de los años 80 del siglo XX hay un repunte significativo del interés por las obras dedicadas aprendizaje de segundas lenguas, en algunos casos con tono nacionalista.

Además, es a finales del siglo pasado cuando se observa también un incremento del interés por el estudio de las categorías gramaticales a lo largo de la historia.